Iran Peace Signals Cap a Strong Quarter for Bonds

March ends on a strong note for bonds. UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.66, up 0.43 on the day � one of the better single-session moves this quarter. The 10-year Treasury finished near 4.30%, down roughly 5 basis points from Friday's close.

The rally came entirely from geopolitical de-escalation. Trump told the New York Post this afternoon: "My mission was to prevent Iran from possessing a nuclear weapon, and I succeeded." Iran's president responded with willingness to end the war in exchange for guarantees. Yields fell from 4.33 to 4.29 in a single move as traders priced out some of the war premium that had been building in bonds for weeks.

For borrowers, the 30-year rate ended March around 6.47% � noticeably lower than the 6.64% peak we saw two weeks ago. If the Iran situation continues to de-escalate, rates have room to push lower. The risk is that ceasefire talks stall, the safe-haven bid reverses, and yields drift back up. Watch the headlines, not the Fed, for the near-term direction.

First quarter 2026 closes with rates meaningfully lower than where they started. That's the setup heading into Q2.

� David Burson, NetRate Mortgage