Rate Watch Archive
138 daily market updates
October 2026
Tue, Oct 6Treasury yields continued lower into midday, but UMBS 6.0 gave back the morning's gains — rates are holding near the highest levels in about three years.neutral10yr: 5.28%Mon, Oct 5Mortgage bonds sold off Monday without a clear trigger. UMBS 6.0 settled at 97.78, down 28 cents, the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.310%, and the average 30-year fixed moved up to 7.61% from 7.57%.bearish10yr: 5.31%Fri, Oct 2A weak jobs report gave bonds an early lift Friday, and by the close it was gone. UMBS 6.0 settled at 98.06, down 26 cents, the 10-year Treasury rose to 5.273%, and the average 30-year fixed moved back up to 7.57% from 7.54%.bearish10yr: 5.27%Thu, Oct 1Bonds shook off a hot inflation reading Thursday and rallied. UMBS 6.0 closed at 98.32, up 29 cents, the 10-year Treasury fell to 5.241%, and the average 30-year fixed eased to 7.54% from 7.60%.bullish10yr: 5.24%
September 2026
Wed, Sep 30Bonds gave back an early PCE bounce Wednesday. UMBS 6.0 closed at 98.03, down 16 cents, and the 10-year settled at 5.287%, up 5 basis points. The average 30-year fixed rose to 7.60%, another long-term high.bearish10yr: 5.29%Tue, Sep 29Bonds made a full round trip Tuesday. UMBS 6.0 sank to 97.77 by early afternoon, then recovered to close at 98.19, down just one cent. The 10-year finished at 5.237%, up 0.3 basis points. The average 30-year fixed still rose to 7.58%.neutral10yr: 5.24%Mon, Sep 28Bonds gave back all of Friday's rally and more. UMBS 6.0 closed at 98.20, down 64 cents, and the 10-year finished at 5.234%, up 7.4 basis points. The average 30-year fixed hit 7.50%.bearish10yr: 5.23%Fri, Sep 25Bonds bounced back Friday. UMBS 6.0 closed at 98.84, up 65 cents, and the 10-year yield fell 4.1 basis points to 5.160%. That's the first real up day for mortgage bonds after two days of heavy losses.bullish10yr: 5.16%Thu, Sep 24Bonds sold off hard for a second straight day. UMBS 6.0 closed at 98.19, down 80 cents, the 10-year yield rose 9.4 basis points to 5.201%, and the top-tier 30-year fixed average jumped 0.19 to 7.45%.bearish10yr: 5.20%Wed, Sep 23Bonds closed sharply lower Wednesday. UMBS 6.0 finished at 98.99, down 87 cents, and the 10-year yield rose 15 basis points to 5.107%. Top-tier 30-year fixed hit 7.26% — the highest level since May 2024.bearish10yr: 5.11%Tue, Sep 22Bonds bounced back into the close. UMBS 6.0 finished at 99.86, up 5 cents from Monday, after the morning rally vanished by midday and came back in the afternoon. The 10-year settled at 4.955%, flat on the day. Top-tier 30-year rates fell to 7.17% — a one-week low.bullish10yr: 4.96%Mon, Sep 21Bonds closed Monday modestly stronger. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.952%, down 4 basis points on the day, and UMBS 6.0 gained 12 cents to 99.81. Lender sheets ended a penny better at 7.19%.bullish10yr: 4.95%Fri, Sep 18The 10-year closed at 4.993%, holding under 5.00% by seven-tenths of a basis point after testing that line all day. UMBS 6.0 finished at 99.69, down 27 cents from Thursday, but 13 cents above the mid-morning low. Lenders ended at 7.20%, one basis point higher.bearish10yr: 4.99%Thu, Sep 17Bonds closed at the best levels of the week. UMBS 6.0 settled at 99.96, up 61 cents from Wednesday's close, and the 10-year finished at 4.933%, down 8.5 basis points. Lender sheets followed: the 30-year is quoting 7.19%, five basis points below yesterday.bullish10yr: 4.93%Wed, Sep 16The Fed hiked 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on a unanimous 12–0 vote, and mortgage bonds sat still for half an hour. They moved when Chair Warsh spoke: the 30-year closed at 7.24%, highest since January 2025, the 10-year at 5.018% and UMBS 6.0 down 16 cents at 99.35.bearish10yr: 5.02%Tue, Sep 15The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.006% and UMBS 5.5 at 97.09, down a nickel on the day — the smallest loss in a week. But the average 30-year rate moved up to 7.22%, the sixth straight daily increase and the highest since January 2025.bearish10yr: 5.01%Mon, Sep 14Bonds made a forty-cent round trip and still finished lower. UMBS 5.5 closed at 97.14, down 0.20 on the day, the 10-year Treasury at 4.992%, up two basis points, and the average 30-year rate moved up to 7.17% — a new long-term high.bearish10yr: 4.99%Fri, Sep 11Mortgage bonds erased the entire post-CPI rally and closed at the lows. UMBS 5.5 finished at 97.34, down 0.11 on the day, the 10-year Treasury at 4.970%, up a basis point, and the average 30-year rate at 7.12% — the highest level since early 2025.bearish10yr: 4.97%Thu, Sep 10Bonds sold in waves from the overnight session through the close. The 10-year finished at 4.960%, up 12.1 basis points, UMBS 5.5 lost more than a full point to close at 97.45, and the average 30-year rate ended the day at 7.07% — the highest since May 21, 2025.bearish10yr: 4.96%Wed, Sep 9Treasury's $6 billion buyback came in under what traders had positioned for, and bonds sold off the moment it printed. The 10-year closed at 4.839%, up 5 bps, UMBS 5.5 finished down 29 cents at 98.48, and the 30-year rate ended the day at 6.97% — the highest since May 2025.bearish10yr: 4.84%Tue, Sep 8Bonds gave back the morning's gains and then some: the 10-year closed at 4.792%, up about a basis point, and UMBS 5.5 finished at 98.75, down 12 cents from Friday. Mortgage rates held at 6.89% only because lenders had already priced the better morning levels.bearish10yr: 4.79%Mon, Sep 7Markets were closed for Labor Day, so nothing moved: the 30-year conventional holds at 6.89%, exactly where Friday left it. That close capped a week that rose 8 basis points and set a 15-month high on Wednesday.bearish10yr: 4.78%Fri, Sep 4August payrolls beat the forecast by 106,000 and the bond market barely flinched. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.782%, up a single basis point, and the 30-year conventional finished at 6.89%.bearish10yr: 4.78%Thu, Sep 3Bonds put together their best session of the week Thursday, with the 30-year conventional easing 3 basis points to 6.88% after Fed Governor Waller took a September hike off the table. Most of the morning's gain leaked away by the close.bullish10yr: 4.77%Wed, Sep 2Bonds closed Wednesday at the best levels of the session, with the 10-year back to 4.780% and MBS higher across every coupon — though the published 30-year average still ticked up to 6.91% as Tuesday's damage worked through lender pricing.bullish10yr: 4.78%Tue, Sep 1Rates open September at 6.87% — the highest level in over a year — as MBS prices sell off and spreads widen heading into a critical jobs week.bearish10yr: 4.74%
August 2026
Mon, Aug 31August closed at the year's weakest levels: the 30-year fixed averaged 6.87%, the highest since June 2025, and the 10-year Treasury finished at 4.751%. The day ended better than it traded, though — bonds gave back most of the morning's losses into the close.bearish10yr: 4.75%Fri, Aug 28Mortgage rates closed at three-week highs after Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote. UMBS 5.5 finished at 99.09, down about three-eighths of a point, and the 10-year ended at 4.712%.bearish10yr: 4.71%Thu, Aug 27Bonds sold off through the early afternoon on higher oil prices, then took about a third of it back before the close. The 10-year settled at 4.674%, up 2.5 basis points, and the 30-year mortgage rate held at 6.75%.bearish10yr: 4.67%Wed, Aug 26Bonds lost ground Wednesday on a hotter headline PCE print, but the damage was contained. The 10-year closed at 4.649%, up 2.9 basis points from Tuesday's close, after bouncing off 4.67% resistance more than once during the session.bearish10yr: 4.65%Tue, Aug 25Falling oil prices pulled bond yields lower from open to close, and the 10-year Treasury finished at 4.620% — down 7.7 basis points and its lowest level in about a week. The average top-tier 30-year fixed ended at 6.74%, off 0.04% on the day.bullish10yr: 4.62%Mon, Aug 24Bonds ground steadily better all day and closed at their best levels: the 10-year finished at 4.698%, down 3.4 basis points, and UMBS 6.0 gained nine ticks to 101.32. The 30-year fixed still printed 6.78% — a basis point higher, carrying Friday's weakness rather than Monday's gain.bullish10yr: 4.70%Fri, Aug 21Bonds gave back an overnight gain and closed at the week's weakest levels — 10-year at 4.738%, up 3.6 basis points, with the 30-year fixed drifting a penny higher to 6.77%.bearish10yr: 4.74%Thu, Aug 20Rates closed at their highest level in just over a week. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.702%, up 5.6 basis points on the day, and the 30-year fixed moved to 6.76% — four basis points higher than where Wednesday left it.bearish10yr: 4.70%Wed, Aug 19Bonds closed at their best levels of the day. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.639%, down 6.7 basis points, and rate sheets improved to 6.72% — the first decline after three consecutive days of increases.bullish10yr: 4.64%Tue, Aug 18Bonds closed slightly better — the 10-year finished at 4.705%, down about two basis points, and UMBS 5.5 ended flat at 99.25 — but the average 30-year rate still moved up 0.02% to 6.75%, its third straight daily increase.neutral10yr: 4.71%Mon, Aug 17Bonds are at their lows of the day. UMBS 5.5 is off an eighth at 99.26, the 10-year is at 4.721% after adding about three basis points, and the top-tier 30-year fixed sits at 6.73%, two basis points above Friday.bearish10yr: 4.72%Fri, Aug 14Bonds finished the week slightly weaker but well off the afternoon lows. The 30-year closed at 6.71%, up 2 basis points on the day and down 3 on the week, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.693%.bearish10yr: 4.69%Thu, Aug 13Bonds took the morning's PPI gains and held them into the close. The 30-year finished at 6.69%, down 5 basis points on the day and the lowest MND has printed in nearly four weeks.bullish10yr: 4.64%Wed, Aug 12The 30-year closed at 6.74%, down 5 basis points and back at three-week lows, while MBS finished flat on the day — a quiet close to a session that had already done its selling in advance.neutral10yr: 4.70%Tue, Aug 11The 30-year conventional closed at 6.79%, essentially flat on the day, as MBS round-tripped the midday selloff to finish right where it opened — UMBS 5.0 back at 96.75 after dipping to the 96.00 area at lunch. The 10-year Treasury ticked up to 4.69%.neutral10yr: 4.69%Mon, Aug 10Rates closed the week's first session modestly higher: the 30-year conventional finished at 6.76%, up 2 basis points from Friday, as the 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.71% and UMBS 5.0 gave back 4 ticks on the day.bearish10yr: 4.71%Fri, Aug 7The negative jobs report delivered a rally after all — just not the one the morning tape threatened. UMBS 5.0 closed at 96-28 (96.88), up 2 ticks on the day, after opening nearly a full point lower; the 30-year rate finished at 6.74%, three basis points better than yesterday and a fresh weekly low.bullish10yr: 4.65%Thu, Aug 6Rates closed the day slightly higher at 6.77%, giving back a sliver of this week's gains as bonds softened into Friday's jobs report — oil and corporate issuance did the damage, not any change in the underlying story.bearish10yr: 4.68%Wed, Aug 5Bonds shook off the midday soft patch and closed nearly flat — the 10-year finished at 4.601% and UMBS 5.0 ended up a single tick at 97.34, leaving rates parked at their lowest levels in more than two weeks.neutral10yr: 4.60%Tue, Aug 4Rates closed at 6.75% — down 7 basis points on the day and the lowest reading in over two weeks — as the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.615% and mortgage bonds held their bid into the close.bullish10yr: 4.62%Mon, Aug 3The 30-year conventional rate closed the day at 6.82%, a basis point below Friday, as bonds carried their morning strength through the entire session and finished green ahead of a jobs-report week.bullish10yr: 4.67%
July 2026
Fri, Jul 31The 30-year mortgage rate closed the week at 6.83%, up 6 basis points on the day and back near its highest level in a year, as bond markets bled to offshore pressure despite constructive domestic data.bearish10yr: 4.74%Thu, Jul 30The 30-year mortgage rate closed at 6.77%, down 1 basis point on the day, with the 10-year Treasury easing to 4.67% and mortgage bonds holding flat at 96-25. A quiet, sideways session that gave back nothing and gained nothing.neutral10yr: 4.67%Wed, Jul 29The 30-year mortgage rate closed at 6.78%, up 2 basis points on the day, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.68% and mortgage bonds gave back roughly 5 ticks. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady, and rates ticked higher anyway.bearish10yr: 4.68%Tue, Jul 28The 30-year mortgage rate closed at 6.76%, down 4 basis points on the day, capping a quiet session that added to the two-day recovery from last week's spike. UMBS 5.0 finished up about 9 ticks at 97.06 and the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.61%, roughly 4 basis points lower than Monday's close.bullish10yr: 4.61%Mon, Jul 27Bonds closed out a quiet Monday on the front foot — the 10-year Treasury finished at 4.635%, down nearly 5 basis points, and UMBS 5.0 tacked on 7 ticks to end at 96-32. The 30-year mortgage rate held at 6.80%.bullish10yr: 4.63%Fri, Jul 24Mortgage rates recovered modestly from long-term highs Friday, with the 30-year closing at 6.81%, down 4 basis points on the day after opening near 6.85%. UMBS 5.0 held around 96-17 and the 10-year Treasury eased to roughly 4.68%.neutral10yr: 4.68%Thu, Jul 23Bonds clawed back a bruising overnight sell-off: the 10-year ends at 4.696% (+3.3 bps) after touching 4.707% at the open, and UMBS 5.0 closes flat at 96-30. But rate sheets stuck at 6.85% (+8 bps) — the highest in about a year — because lenders were slow to pass the intraday recovery back through.neutral10yr: 4.70%Wed, Jul 22Bonds closed out a quietly weak session. The 30-year finished at 6.77%, up 2 basis points on the day, with UMBS 5.0 settling at 97-00 — down 7 ticks from Tuesday's close — and the 10-year Treasury backing up to 4.664%, roughly 4 basis points higher on the day.bearish10yr: 4.66%Tue, Jul 21Rates matched their highest level of 2026 for the third time, with the 30-year finishing at 6.75% (+4bps) and the 10-year Treasury at 4.63% (+3bps) as bonds gave back the last of last week's inflation rally.bearish10yr: 4.63%Mon, Jul 20Rates opened the week higher and stayed there: the 30-year closed at 6.71%, up 8 basis points from Friday, with the 10-year Treasury finishing at 4.59% and UMBS 5.0 off 19 ticks on the day.bearish10yr: 4.59%Fri, Jul 17The morning safe-haven bid in Treasuries has partially unwound at midday. 10-year yield at 4.545%, up about 2.5 basis points from this morning's open, as the early risk-off demand fades. UMBS 5.0 is holding at 97-23 — unchanged from morning — so rate sheets haven't moved.neutral10yr: 4.54%Thu, Jul 16Rate sheets close at 6.68%, up 4 basis points on the day, after an intraday bond selloff round-tripped by the bell. The 10-year finished at 4.55% — essentially flat and still below the summer ceiling — but the giveback stuck to rate sheets, and today's low of 6.64% didn't survive.bearish10yr: 4.55%Wed, Jul 15The gains held. Rate sheets closed at 6.64% — 6 basis points better than the open — with the 10-year near 4.55% and UMBS 5.0 holding its 97-15 level into the close.bullish10yr: 4.55%Tue, Jul 14Mortgage rates closed 5 basis points better at 6.70%, a moderate recovery from Monday's near-one-year highs — but the CPI-driven bond rally faded through the session. The 10-year finished at 4.588%, down only 0.027 on the day, and UMBS 5.0 slipped about 3 ticks to close near 97.00.bearish10yr: 4.59%Mon, Jul 13The morning's ceiling hasn't held — the 10-year yield hit 4.615% by midday and UMBS 5.0 dropped another 20 cents since the open, pushing 30-year rates to 6.72%.bearish10yr: 4.62%Fri, Jul 10The 30-year fixed closes the week at 6.64%, down a single basis point on the day and effectively flat across the five sessions, while UMBS 5.0 ends at 97.56 and the 10-year Treasury settles at 4.558%.bearish10yr: 4.56%Thu, Jul 9The 30-year fixed has pulled back to 6.65% through midday, dropping 3 basis points from this morning's open as UMBS 5.0 adds another 10 ticks and the 10-year settles at 4.538%.bullish10yr: 4.54%Wed, Jul 8MBS 5.0 has drifted 7 ticks lower since the open, now at 97.56. The 10-year Treasury is holding at 4.579% and mortgage rates remain at 6.63% — unchanged from this morning.bearishTue, Jul 7Bonds sold off through the session Tuesday: UMBS 5.0 closed at 97.79, down more than half a point, with the 10-year Treasury up 8 basis points to 4.55% and the 30-year conventional rate settling at 6.63%.bearish10yr: 4.55%Mon, Jul 6Bonds are holding steady into midday. UMBS 5.0 is unchanged at 98.22 — same 13-tick gain from Thursday's close — while the 10-year yield has drifted to 4.483%, up less than 2 basis points from this morning.neutralFri, Jul 3Bond markets closed early at 2 PM Eastern — the holiday session is done. The 30-year conventional rate held at 6.60% through the close, UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.09, and the 10-year Treasury held at 4.486%. Rates went out exactly where they came in this morning.neutral10yr: 4.49%Thu, Jul 2The 30-year closed at 6.60%, down five basis points, after weak June jobs data gave bonds an early bid that faded into a holiday-thinned close. UMBS 5.0 finished up five ticks at 98.09 — green on the day, but off the midday high.bullish10yr: 4.49%Wed, Jul 1Bonds end lower as Warsh signals caution; ADP miss limits damagebearish10yr: 4.48%
June 2026
Tue, Jun 30Bonds sold off steadily through the session, closing the 10-year Treasury at 4.465% (+9 bps from the morning open) and UMBS 5.0 at 98.11 (-35 ticks). The 30-year conventional rate closes at 6.54%.bearish10yr: 4.46%Mon, Jun 2930yr conventional closed at 6.52%, down 1 basis point from this morning's open. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.375% and UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.63 — essentially flat on the day.neutral10yr: 4.38%Fri, Jun 26Bonds have edged slightly higher since this morning. UMBS 5.0 is at 98.75, up 3 ticks from the open. The 10-year yield has drifted down another basis point to 4.375%. The 30-year rate holds at 6.53%.bullish10yr: 4.38%Thu, Jun 25Bonds held Thursday's PCE-driven gains into the close — UMBS 5.0 finished at 98.59 (+0.08) and the 30-year rate settles at 6.53%.bullish10yr: 4.39%Wed, Jun 24Bonds extended the rally through the close — UMBS 5.0 finished at 98.52, up 53 basis points on the day, while the 10-year Treasury settled at 4.387% and 30-year rates confirmed at 6.55%.bullish10yr: 4.39%Tue, Jun 23Bonds closed higher on the day. UMBS 5.0 ended at 98.00, up 13 basis points from Monday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.498%, down 1.4 basis points. The 30-year conventional rate ticked down to 6.65%.bullish10yr: 4.50%Mon, Jun 22Bonds closed at their weakest level since June 10, with UMBS 5.0 finishing down 26 basis points at 97.87 — rates are back toward recent highs after last Thursday's brief reprieve.bearish10yr: 4.51%Fri, Jun 19Bond markets were closed for Juneteenth. 30-year rate closes at 6.58%, 10-year Treasury at 4.456%, UMBS 5.0 at 98.13 — all unchanged from morning open.bullish10yr: 4.46%Thu, Jun 18Bonds closed where midday left off — UMBS 5.0 finished at 98.29, up 29 basis points on the day. 30-year rate closes at 6.58%, 4 bps better than yesterday.neutralTue, Jun 16Bonds Hold Gains Ahead of Fed Decision as Housing Starts Hit Six-Year Lowbullish10yr: 4.43%Mon, Jun 15Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows as Iran Peace Deal Materializesbullish10yr: 4.47%Fri, Jun 12Friday closed exactly where midday left off: 30-year conventional at 6.58%, 10-year Treasury at 4.485%, UMBS 5.0 at 98.10. The day finished bullish — bonds opened 16 basis points below Thursday's close and clawed back most of that by the afternoon session.bullishThu, Jun 11Iran-U.S. ceasefire sparked a bond rally — 30yr closed at 6.60%, down 7 bps on the day.bullish10yr: 4.46%Wed, Jun 1030yr rate closed at 6.67%, down 1 basis point on the day. UMBS 5.0 finished at 97.54, off 21 bps from Tuesday's close.bearish10yr: 4.55%Tue, Jun 9Bonds closed Tuesday at session highs, with UMBS 5.0 gaining 16 bps to 97.76 and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.52%. Mortgage rates held steady at 6.68%.bullish10yr: 4.52%Mon, Jun 8UMBS 5.0 closed at 97.60, down 17 bps from Friday's close. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.564%, up 3.2 bps. The 30-year rate ended the day at 6.68%, up 2 bps from last Friday.bearishFri, Jun 530yr closed at 6.66% (+0.08). UMBS 5.0 settled at 97.77, down 48 ticks on the day. 10yr Treasury closed at 4.516%, up 3.9 basis points.bearish10yr: 4.52%Thu, Jun 430-year rates closed at 6.58%, down 3 basis points, as bond markets held the morning's UMBS rally through the close. UMBS 5.0 finished at 98.25, up 22 price points. 10-year yield: 4.477%.bullish10yr: 4.48%
May 2026
Fri, May 29Rates are holding steady at two-week lows as Thursday opens — 30-year rate sheets at 6.59%, UMBS 5.0 down just 2 price points overnight to 98.31, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.455%, up roughly 1 basis point from Wednesday's close.neutral10yr: 4.46%Thu, May 28Mortgage Rates Hit 2-Week Lows as Peace Deal Hopes Drive Bond Rallybullish10yr: 4.45%Wed, May 27Bonds opened strong and gave it all back. UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.04, up just 1 basis point on the day — essentially flat after touching 98.13 at the morning open. Rate sheets held at 6.61% throughout.neutral10yr: 4.48%Tue, May 2630-year conventional closed at 6.61%, 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.49% — down 7 basis points on the day — and UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.04, up 50 bps from Friday's close.bullish10yr: 4.49%Mon, May 25Markets were closed all session. No trades, no repricing, no data.neutralFri, May 22Bonds finished Friday with modest gains — UMBS 5.0 at 97.59 (+0.08), 10-year Treasury at 4.559% (-0.011%) — capping a week that ended roughly where it started despite heavy intraday volatility.neutral10yr: 4.56%Thu, May 21Bonds closed well into positive territory after a complete reversal of the morning's losses. UMBS 5.0 finished at 97.61, up 27 basis points from Wednesday's close — the intraday move from the morning low of 97.10 to the EOD close was nearly 50 basis points.bullish10yr: 4.57%Wed, May 20Rates fully reverse Tuesday losses on Iran peace deal headlinesbullish10yr: 4.57%Tue, May 1930-year bonds slide 64 basis points as whale block trades flood Treasury futuresbearish10yr: 4.67%Mon, May 18UMBS 5.0 closes at 97.42, essentially flat from Friday, while the 30-year rate ticks up to 6.68% — a noisy session that went nowhere.neutral10yr: 4.59%Fri, May 15Bonds drifted lower throughout the session without finding a floor. UMBS 5.0 closed at 97.41, down 72 basis points from Thursday's close of 98.13, and the 30-year surveyed rate settled at 6.65% — up 13 basis points on the day.bearish10yr: 4.59%Thu, May 14Thursday's rally reversed in the afternoon — UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.13, down 9 basis points from Wednesday's close after peaking at 98.39 in the morning.bearish10yr: 4.48%Wed, May 13MBS closed at 98.22 (+8 ticks on the day), fully recovering from a midday dip as markets absorbed both the CPI and PPI data without a lasting selloff. The 30yr rate finishes at 6.57% — up just 1 basis point from yesterday despite a turbulent data week.bullish10yr: 4.46%Tue, May 1230yr fixed closed at 6.56%, 10yr Treasury yield at 4.453% — a late-session selloff on geopolitical headlines and treasury auction pressure pushed yields to 10-month highs.bearish10yr: 4.45%Mon, May 11Bonds closed near their lows — 30yr conventional rate reprices to 6.49%, up 7bps; UMBS 5.0 settles at 98.52, down 37 ticks from Friday's close; 10yr Treasury yield ends at 4.41%.bearish10yr: 4.41%Fri, May 8Bonds recover into the close — UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.89, up 25 ticks on the day; 30yr conventional ends the week at 6.42%.bullish10yr: 4.36%Thu, May 7UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.65 — down 17 ticks net from yesterday's close — as morning gains built on three sessions of overnight strength gave way to a post-FOMC reversal that held through the close. The 30-year conventional rate finishes the day at 6.44%, unchanged.bearish10yr: 4.39%Wed, May 6Pre-market gains from overnight peace deal reports stuck around all session. UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.82, up 52 ticks from Tuesday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.347%, down 7.8 basis points. The 30-year conventional rate settled at 6.44%.bullish10yr: 4.35%Tue, May 5Bonds held a modest gain through the close — UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.30, up 10 ticks from Monday's settlement. 10yr yield ends at 4.425%, down 1.3 basis points. 30-year conventional rate closes at 6.54%, 2 basis points tighter than Monday.bullish10yr: 4.42%Mon, May 4UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.20, down 51 ticks from Friday's 98.71 settle — the 30-year rate finished at 6.56%, its highest level in more than a month, after two rounds of lender reprices through the sessionbearish10yr: 4.44%Fri, May 1Bonds drift quietly to a flat close — UMBS 5.0 settles at 98.70, 10yr Treasury holds 4.375%, 30yr conventional finishes at 6.44%.neutral10yr: 4.38%
April 2026
Thu, Apr 30Bonds closed at their best levels of the day — 30yr rate holds at 6.45%, 10yr Treasury at 4.371%, UMBS 5.0 up 40 ticks as oil selloff and month-end buying drove the full sessionbullish10yr: 4.37%Wed, Apr 29Rates surge to 6-week high on Hormuz blockade fears, hawkish Fed readbearish10yr: 4.43%Tue, Apr 28Bonds opened weaker, slid further midday, then clawed back to close at 98.92 — UMBS 5.0 still down 10 ticks on the day. The 30-year rate settled at 6.38%, up 6 basis points from yesterday's 6.32%.bearish10yr: 4.35%Mon, Apr 27Bonds closed softer — UMBS 5.0 settled at 99.01, down 20 ticks on the day, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.342%, up 3.9 basis points. The 30-year rate held at 6.32% all day.bearish10yr: 4.34%Fri, Apr 24UMBS 5.0 closes Friday at 99.11, up 12 ticks on the day; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.307% — 30-year rate holds at 6.32% to close the week.bullish10yr: 4.31%Thu, Apr 23UMBS 5.0 retreats to 99.20, 10-year yield ticks up to 4.31% — morning bid fades but 30-year rate holds at 6.32%neutral10yr: 4.31%Wed, Apr 22Bonds erased most of the day's early gains. UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.22, up just 3 cents from yesterday — 30-year rates hold at 6.32%.neutral10yr: 4.29%Tue, Apr 21Bonds close at session lows — UMBS 5.0 finishes down 25 cents at 99.18, 10-year yield at 4.30%, 30-year fixed settles at 6.33%bearish10yr: 4.30%Mon, Apr 20Rates closed Monday modestly softer — 30-year fixed at 6.30%, UMBS 5.0 down 7 cents to 99.43, 10-year yield ending near 4.25%.bearish10yr: 4.25%Fri, Apr 17Friday's bond rally held into the close — 30-year fixed at 6.29%, UMBS 5.0 up 30 basis points on the day.bullish10yr: 4.25%Thu, Apr 16Bonds drifted lower through the first half of Thursday. UMBS 5.0 slipped to 99.24 from 99.29 at the morning open, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.30%.bearish10yr: 4.30%Wed, Apr 15Wednesday closed with UMBS 5.0 at 99.28 — down 10 basis points from Tuesday's close at 99.39, and recovered from an intraday low of 99.19 reached around midday. The 10-year Treasury settled at 4.282%, up 3.5 basis points on the day.neutral10yr: 4.28%Tue, Apr 14UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.39, up 24 basis points from Monday's close at 99.15. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the day at 4.247%, down 4.5 basis points. The 30-year survey rate closed at 6.33%, the lowest level in four weeks.bullish10yr: 4.25%Mon, Apr 13Bonds closed Monday with a net gain on the day, reversing all of the overnight weakness and then some. UMBS 5.0 finished at 99.17, up 20 basis points from Thursday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.292%, down 2.4 basis points.bullish10yr: 4.29%Fri, Apr 10UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.97, down 8 basis points on the day, as bonds drifted weaker through Friday's session despite softer oil prices. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.336%, up nearly 6 basis points from Thursday's close. The 30-year mortgage rate holds at 6.39%.bearish10yr: 4.34%Thu, Apr 9UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.17, up 10 basis points net on the day after a volatile session that opened bearish on CPI digestion, reversed hard at midday on headline flow, and held most of those gains into the close — the 30-year rate ticked down to 6.38%.bullish10yr: 4.28%Wed, Apr 8MBS gave back nearly all of Wednesday's overnight gains, closing UMBS 5.0 at 99.07 — up just 7 basis points from Tuesday's close of 99.00, after touching 99.28 at the morning open. The 30-year survey rate moved to 6.40%, down 4 basis points from Tuesday.bullish10yr: 4.30%Tue, Apr 7UMBS 5.0 extended losses to 98.63 midday, adding another 6 basis points to this morning's decline as the market holds its breath waiting for tonight's tariff ceasefire headlines.bearish10yr: 4.36%Mon, Apr 6Markets drift in holiday-thin session; 30yr holds at 6.43%bullish10yr: 4.34%Fri, Apr 3Rates close the week at 6.45% as solid jobs data undercuts the slowdown trade on a quiet Good Friday.bearish10yr: 4.34%Thu, Apr 2Bonds Close Higher as Growth Trade Wins Thursdaybullish10yr: 4.31%Wed, Apr 1Bonds Hold Ground Despite Data Beats — 30yr Closes at 6.45%neutral10yr: 4.29%
March 2026
Tue, Mar 31Iran Peace Signals Cap a Strong Quarter for Bondsbullish10yr: 4.30%Mon, Mar 30Bonds mostly find buyers on month-end; UMBS 5.0 +0.37 but gave back gains latebullishFri, Mar 27Iran war drives mortgage rates to six-month highbearish10yr: 4.46%Thu, Mar 26Yields Bounce Back After Iran Ceasefire Relief Fadesbearish10yr: 4.37%Wed, Mar 25War Premium Drives Mortgage Rates to October Highsbearish10yr: 4.34%Tue, Mar 24Oil Shock and Fed Caution Drive Mortgage Rates Higherbearish10yr: 4.41%Mon, Mar 23Rates Ease on Iran Ceasefire Talksneutral10yr: 4.35%
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