Rate Watch Archive
41 daily market updates
May 2026
Mon, May 18The morning stabilization didn't hold. UMBS 5.0 is at 97.33, down 22 basis points from the morning open of 97.55. The 10-year Treasury has climbed back to 4.601% after touching 4.574% at the open.bearish10yr: 4.60%Fri, May 15Bonds drifted lower throughout the session without finding a floor. UMBS 5.0 closed at 97.41, down 72 basis points from Thursday's close of 98.13, and the 30-year surveyed rate settled at 6.65% — up 13 basis points on the day.bearish10yr: 4.59%Thu, May 14Thursday's rally reversed in the afternoon — UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.13, down 9 basis points from Wednesday's close after peaking at 98.39 in the morning.bearish10yr: 4.48%Wed, May 13MBS closed at 98.22 (+8 ticks on the day), fully recovering from a midday dip as markets absorbed both the CPI and PPI data without a lasting selloff. The 30yr rate finishes at 6.57% — up just 1 basis point from yesterday despite a turbulent data week.bullish10yr: 4.46%Tue, May 1230yr fixed closed at 6.56%, 10yr Treasury yield at 4.453% — a late-session selloff on geopolitical headlines and treasury auction pressure pushed yields to 10-month highs.bearish10yr: 4.45%Mon, May 11Bonds closed near their lows — 30yr conventional rate reprices to 6.49%, up 7bps; UMBS 5.0 settles at 98.52, down 37 ticks from Friday's close; 10yr Treasury yield ends at 4.41%.bearish10yr: 4.41%Fri, May 8Bonds recover into the close — UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.89, up 25 ticks on the day; 30yr conventional ends the week at 6.42%.bullish10yr: 4.36%Thu, May 7UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.65 — down 17 ticks net from yesterday's close — as morning gains built on three sessions of overnight strength gave way to a post-FOMC reversal that held through the close. The 30-year conventional rate finishes the day at 6.44%, unchanged.bearish10yr: 4.39%Wed, May 6Pre-market gains from overnight peace deal reports stuck around all session. UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.82, up 52 ticks from Tuesday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.347%, down 7.8 basis points. The 30-year conventional rate settled at 6.44%.bullish10yr: 4.35%Tue, May 5Bonds held a modest gain through the close — UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.30, up 10 ticks from Monday's settlement. 10yr yield ends at 4.425%, down 1.3 basis points. 30-year conventional rate closes at 6.54%, 2 basis points tighter than Monday.bullish10yr: 4.42%Mon, May 4UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.20, down 51 ticks from Friday's 98.71 settle — the 30-year rate finished at 6.56%, its highest level in more than a month, after two rounds of lender reprices through the sessionbearish10yr: 4.44%Fri, May 1Bonds drift quietly to a flat close — UMBS 5.0 settles at 98.70, 10yr Treasury holds 4.375%, 30yr conventional finishes at 6.44%.neutral10yr: 4.38%
April 2026
Thu, Apr 30Bonds closed at their best levels of the day — 30yr rate holds at 6.45%, 10yr Treasury at 4.371%, UMBS 5.0 up 40 ticks as oil selloff and month-end buying drove the full sessionbullish10yr: 4.37%Wed, Apr 29Rates surge to 6-week high on Hormuz blockade fears, hawkish Fed readbearish10yr: 4.43%Tue, Apr 28Bonds opened weaker, slid further midday, then clawed back to close at 98.92 — UMBS 5.0 still down 10 ticks on the day. The 30-year rate settled at 6.38%, up 6 basis points from yesterday's 6.32%.bearish10yr: 4.35%Mon, Apr 27Bonds closed softer — UMBS 5.0 settled at 99.01, down 20 ticks on the day, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.342%, up 3.9 basis points. The 30-year rate held at 6.32% all day.bearish10yr: 4.34%Fri, Apr 24UMBS 5.0 closes Friday at 99.11, up 12 ticks on the day; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.307% — 30-year rate holds at 6.32% to close the week.bullish10yr: 4.31%Thu, Apr 23UMBS 5.0 retreats to 99.20, 10-year yield ticks up to 4.31% — morning bid fades but 30-year rate holds at 6.32%neutral10yr: 4.31%Wed, Apr 22Bonds erased most of the day's early gains. UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.22, up just 3 cents from yesterday — 30-year rates hold at 6.32%.neutral10yr: 4.29%Tue, Apr 21Bonds close at session lows — UMBS 5.0 finishes down 25 cents at 99.18, 10-year yield at 4.30%, 30-year fixed settles at 6.33%bearish10yr: 4.30%Mon, Apr 20Rates closed Monday modestly softer — 30-year fixed at 6.30%, UMBS 5.0 down 7 cents to 99.43, 10-year yield ending near 4.25%.bearish10yr: 4.25%Fri, Apr 17Friday's bond rally held into the close — 30-year fixed at 6.29%, UMBS 5.0 up 30 basis points on the day.bullish10yr: 4.25%Thu, Apr 16Bonds drifted lower through the first half of Thursday. UMBS 5.0 slipped to 99.24 from 99.29 at the morning open, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.30%.bearish10yr: 4.30%Wed, Apr 15Wednesday closed with UMBS 5.0 at 99.28 — down 10 basis points from Tuesday's close at 99.39, and recovered from an intraday low of 99.19 reached around midday. The 10-year Treasury settled at 4.282%, up 3.5 basis points on the day.neutral10yr: 4.28%Tue, Apr 14UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.39, up 24 basis points from Monday's close at 99.15. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the day at 4.247%, down 4.5 basis points. The 30-year survey rate closed at 6.33%, the lowest level in four weeks.bullish10yr: 4.25%Mon, Apr 13Bonds closed Monday with a net gain on the day, reversing all of the overnight weakness and then some. UMBS 5.0 finished at 99.17, up 20 basis points from Thursday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.292%, down 2.4 basis points.bullish10yr: 4.29%Fri, Apr 10UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.97, down 8 basis points on the day, as bonds drifted weaker through Friday's session despite softer oil prices. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.336%, up nearly 6 basis points from Thursday's close. The 30-year mortgage rate holds at 6.39%.bearish10yr: 4.34%Thu, Apr 9UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.17, up 10 basis points net on the day after a volatile session that opened bearish on CPI digestion, reversed hard at midday on headline flow, and held most of those gains into the close — the 30-year rate ticked down to 6.38%.bullish10yr: 4.28%Wed, Apr 8MBS gave back nearly all of Wednesday's overnight gains, closing UMBS 5.0 at 99.07 — up just 7 basis points from Tuesday's close of 99.00, after touching 99.28 at the morning open. The 30-year survey rate moved to 6.40%, down 4 basis points from Tuesday.bullish10yr: 4.30%Tue, Apr 7UMBS 5.0 extended losses to 98.63 midday, adding another 6 basis points to this morning's decline as the market holds its breath waiting for tonight's tariff ceasefire headlines.bearish10yr: 4.36%Mon, Apr 6Markets drift in holiday-thin session; 30yr holds at 6.43%bullish10yr: 4.34%Fri, Apr 3Rates close the week at 6.45% as solid jobs data undercuts the slowdown trade on a quiet Good Friday.bearish10yr: 4.34%Thu, Apr 2Bonds Close Higher as Growth Trade Wins Thursdaybullish10yr: 4.31%Wed, Apr 1Bonds Hold Ground Despite Data Beats — 30yr Closes at 6.45%neutral10yr: 4.29%
March 2026
Tue, Mar 31Iran Peace Signals Cap a Strong Quarter for Bondsbullish10yr: 4.30%Mon, Mar 30Bonds mostly find buyers on month-end; UMBS 5.0 +0.37 but gave back gains latebullishFri, Mar 27Iran war drives mortgage rates to six-month highbearish10yr: 4.46%Thu, Mar 26Yields Bounce Back After Iran Ceasefire Relief Fadesbearish10yr: 4.37%Wed, Mar 25War Premium Drives Mortgage Rates to October Highsbearish10yr: 4.34%Tue, Mar 24Oil Shock and Fed Caution Drive Mortgage Rates Higherbearish10yr: 4.41%Mon, Mar 23Rates Ease on Iran Ceasefire Talksneutral10yr: 4.35%
Market commentary is for informational purposes only. NMLS #1111861.