Rate Watch Archive
45 daily market updates
May 2026
Fri, May 22Bonds finished Friday with modest gains — UMBS 5.0 at 97.59 (+0.08), 10-year Treasury at 4.559% (-0.011%) — capping a week that ended roughly where it started despite heavy intraday volatility.neutral10yr: 4.56%Thu, May 21Bonds closed well into positive territory after a complete reversal of the morning's losses. UMBS 5.0 finished at 97.61, up 27 basis points from Wednesday's close — the intraday move from the morning low of 97.10 to the EOD close was nearly 50 basis points.bullish10yr: 4.57%Wed, May 20Rates fully reverse Tuesday losses on Iran peace deal headlinesbullish10yr: 4.57%Tue, May 1930-year bonds slide 64 basis points as whale block trades flood Treasury futuresbearish10yr: 4.67%Mon, May 18UMBS 5.0 closes at 97.42, essentially flat from Friday, while the 30-year rate ticks up to 6.68% — a noisy session that went nowhere.neutral10yr: 4.59%Fri, May 15Bonds drifted lower throughout the session without finding a floor. UMBS 5.0 closed at 97.41, down 72 basis points from Thursday's close of 98.13, and the 30-year surveyed rate settled at 6.65% — up 13 basis points on the day.bearish10yr: 4.59%Thu, May 14Thursday's rally reversed in the afternoon — UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.13, down 9 basis points from Wednesday's close after peaking at 98.39 in the morning.bearish10yr: 4.48%Wed, May 13MBS closed at 98.22 (+8 ticks on the day), fully recovering from a midday dip as markets absorbed both the CPI and PPI data without a lasting selloff. The 30yr rate finishes at 6.57% — up just 1 basis point from yesterday despite a turbulent data week.bullish10yr: 4.46%Tue, May 1230yr fixed closed at 6.56%, 10yr Treasury yield at 4.453% — a late-session selloff on geopolitical headlines and treasury auction pressure pushed yields to 10-month highs.bearish10yr: 4.45%Mon, May 11Bonds closed near their lows — 30yr conventional rate reprices to 6.49%, up 7bps; UMBS 5.0 settles at 98.52, down 37 ticks from Friday's close; 10yr Treasury yield ends at 4.41%.bearish10yr: 4.41%Fri, May 8Bonds recover into the close — UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.89, up 25 ticks on the day; 30yr conventional ends the week at 6.42%.bullish10yr: 4.36%Thu, May 7UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.65 — down 17 ticks net from yesterday's close — as morning gains built on three sessions of overnight strength gave way to a post-FOMC reversal that held through the close. The 30-year conventional rate finishes the day at 6.44%, unchanged.bearish10yr: 4.39%Wed, May 6Pre-market gains from overnight peace deal reports stuck around all session. UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.82, up 52 ticks from Tuesday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.347%, down 7.8 basis points. The 30-year conventional rate settled at 6.44%.bullish10yr: 4.35%Tue, May 5Bonds held a modest gain through the close — UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.30, up 10 ticks from Monday's settlement. 10yr yield ends at 4.425%, down 1.3 basis points. 30-year conventional rate closes at 6.54%, 2 basis points tighter than Monday.bullish10yr: 4.42%Mon, May 4UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.20, down 51 ticks from Friday's 98.71 settle — the 30-year rate finished at 6.56%, its highest level in more than a month, after two rounds of lender reprices through the sessionbearish10yr: 4.44%Fri, May 1Bonds drift quietly to a flat close — UMBS 5.0 settles at 98.70, 10yr Treasury holds 4.375%, 30yr conventional finishes at 6.44%.neutral10yr: 4.38%
April 2026
Thu, Apr 30Bonds closed at their best levels of the day — 30yr rate holds at 6.45%, 10yr Treasury at 4.371%, UMBS 5.0 up 40 ticks as oil selloff and month-end buying drove the full sessionbullish10yr: 4.37%Wed, Apr 29Rates surge to 6-week high on Hormuz blockade fears, hawkish Fed readbearish10yr: 4.43%Tue, Apr 28Bonds opened weaker, slid further midday, then clawed back to close at 98.92 — UMBS 5.0 still down 10 ticks on the day. The 30-year rate settled at 6.38%, up 6 basis points from yesterday's 6.32%.bearish10yr: 4.35%Mon, Apr 27Bonds closed softer — UMBS 5.0 settled at 99.01, down 20 ticks on the day, and the 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.342%, up 3.9 basis points. The 30-year rate held at 6.32% all day.bearish10yr: 4.34%Fri, Apr 24UMBS 5.0 closes Friday at 99.11, up 12 ticks on the day; 10-year Treasury yield falls to 4.307% — 30-year rate holds at 6.32% to close the week.bullish10yr: 4.31%Thu, Apr 23UMBS 5.0 retreats to 99.20, 10-year yield ticks up to 4.31% — morning bid fades but 30-year rate holds at 6.32%neutral10yr: 4.31%Wed, Apr 22Bonds erased most of the day's early gains. UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.22, up just 3 cents from yesterday — 30-year rates hold at 6.32%.neutral10yr: 4.29%Tue, Apr 21Bonds close at session lows — UMBS 5.0 finishes down 25 cents at 99.18, 10-year yield at 4.30%, 30-year fixed settles at 6.33%bearish10yr: 4.30%Mon, Apr 20Rates closed Monday modestly softer — 30-year fixed at 6.30%, UMBS 5.0 down 7 cents to 99.43, 10-year yield ending near 4.25%.bearish10yr: 4.25%Fri, Apr 17Friday's bond rally held into the close — 30-year fixed at 6.29%, UMBS 5.0 up 30 basis points on the day.bullish10yr: 4.25%Thu, Apr 16Bonds drifted lower through the first half of Thursday. UMBS 5.0 slipped to 99.24 from 99.29 at the morning open, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.30%.bearish10yr: 4.30%Wed, Apr 15Wednesday closed with UMBS 5.0 at 99.28 — down 10 basis points from Tuesday's close at 99.39, and recovered from an intraday low of 99.19 reached around midday. The 10-year Treasury settled at 4.282%, up 3.5 basis points on the day.neutral10yr: 4.28%Tue, Apr 14UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.39, up 24 basis points from Monday's close at 99.15. The 10-year Treasury yield ended the day at 4.247%, down 4.5 basis points. The 30-year survey rate closed at 6.33%, the lowest level in four weeks.bullish10yr: 4.25%Mon, Apr 13Bonds closed Monday with a net gain on the day, reversing all of the overnight weakness and then some. UMBS 5.0 finished at 99.17, up 20 basis points from Thursday's close. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.292%, down 2.4 basis points.bullish10yr: 4.29%Fri, Apr 10UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.97, down 8 basis points on the day, as bonds drifted weaker through Friday's session despite softer oil prices. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.336%, up nearly 6 basis points from Thursday's close. The 30-year mortgage rate holds at 6.39%.bearish10yr: 4.34%Thu, Apr 9UMBS 5.0 closed at 99.17, up 10 basis points net on the day after a volatile session that opened bearish on CPI digestion, reversed hard at midday on headline flow, and held most of those gains into the close — the 30-year rate ticked down to 6.38%.bullish10yr: 4.28%Wed, Apr 8MBS gave back nearly all of Wednesday's overnight gains, closing UMBS 5.0 at 99.07 — up just 7 basis points from Tuesday's close of 99.00, after touching 99.28 at the morning open. The 30-year survey rate moved to 6.40%, down 4 basis points from Tuesday.bullish10yr: 4.30%Tue, Apr 7UMBS 5.0 extended losses to 98.63 midday, adding another 6 basis points to this morning's decline as the market holds its breath waiting for tonight's tariff ceasefire headlines.bearish10yr: 4.36%Mon, Apr 6Markets drift in holiday-thin session; 30yr holds at 6.43%bullish10yr: 4.34%Fri, Apr 3Rates close the week at 6.45% as solid jobs data undercuts the slowdown trade on a quiet Good Friday.bearish10yr: 4.34%Thu, Apr 2Bonds Close Higher as Growth Trade Wins Thursdaybullish10yr: 4.31%Wed, Apr 1Bonds Hold Ground Despite Data Beats — 30yr Closes at 6.45%neutral10yr: 4.29%
March 2026
Tue, Mar 31Iran Peace Signals Cap a Strong Quarter for Bondsbullish10yr: 4.30%Mon, Mar 30Bonds mostly find buyers on month-end; UMBS 5.0 +0.37 but gave back gains latebullishFri, Mar 27Iran war drives mortgage rates to six-month highbearish10yr: 4.46%Thu, Mar 26Yields Bounce Back After Iran Ceasefire Relief Fadesbearish10yr: 4.37%Wed, Mar 25War Premium Drives Mortgage Rates to October Highsbearish10yr: 4.34%Tue, Mar 24Oil Shock and Fed Caution Drive Mortgage Rates Higherbearish10yr: 4.41%Mon, Mar 23Rates Ease on Iran Ceasefire Talksneutral10yr: 4.35%
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