UMBS 5.0 extended losses to 98.63 midday, adding another 6 basis points to this morning's decline as the market holds its breath waiting for tonight's tariff ceasefire headlines.

UMBS 5.0 slipped from 98.69 at the open to 98.63 at midday — bringing the total daily loss to 21 basis points from Monday's close. The 10-year yield ticked up to 4.356%, and the 30-year rate edged to 6.44%. The moves are measured, but the direction hasn't changed.

This isn't an acceleration — it's a holding pattern. Trade negotiation headlines expected tonight create a binary setup that has traders positioned defensively. Long bonds going into a potential deal collapse carries real risk; short bonds into a rally hurts just as much. So volume stays thin and prices drift lower as the path of least resistance. Powell and CPI are still in front of us. The week's real test hasn't started yet.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage