UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.97, down 8 basis points on the day, as bonds drifted weaker through Friday's session despite softer oil prices. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.336%, up nearly 6 basis points from Thursday's close. The 30-year mortgage rate holds at 6.39%.

UMBS 5.0 opened near flat at 99.04 — essentially unchanged from Thursday's close — then slid through the morning to a midday low of 98.95. The afternoon brought a fractional recovery to 98.97, but the session closed in the red. The 10-year tracked in lockstep: 4.306% at the open, 4.319% by midday, 4.336% at the close.

March CPI at 3.3% was the day's scheduled catalyst, and the market absorbed it without a notable reaction. Energy drove the headline number — and the Fed and bond market treat energy-led inflation as transitory rather than a signal of durable price pressure. The muted response confirmed that read. The afternoon's drift lower had nothing to do with data and everything to do with Friday mechanics: thin volume, live trade-policy and geopolitical headline risk, and positioning adjustments as traders reduced exposure into the weekend. Bonds losing ground while oil softened is a positioning story, not a macro one.

The 30-year rate holds at 6.39% heading into next week. PPI is the next scheduled macro input that could shift the direction read. Until then, the market continues to trade on headline flow — the same environment that has defined rate movement this week.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage