Bonds drifted lower through the first half of Thursday. UMBS 5.0 slipped to 99.24 from 99.29 at the morning open, and the 10-year Treasury yield pushed up to 4.30%.

The mild selling pressure isn't linked to any obvious catalyst — no economic data moved markets this morning. What's happening is typical afternoon drift: after a flat open with no reason to buy, bonds lose ground to sellers who see little reason to hold duration into the weekend. The 10-year rising about 2 basis points from morning levels reflects the same dynamic. Nothing broke; it's just soft.

The 30-year fixed rate remains at 6.32%. Today's intraday weakness is small enough that rate sheets are unlikely to see meaningful reprices before the close — but borrowers sitting on the fence should be aware that the market hasn't found a floor yet. If Treasury yields continue climbing toward 4.35%, lenders will respond. The refi window is still open at today's levels.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage