Rates closed Monday modestly softer — 30-year fixed at 6.30%, UMBS 5.0 down 7 cents to 99.43, 10-year yield ending near 4.25%.

The day's arc was straightforward: bonds held steady at the open, absorbing the weekend's fresh trade escalation headlines without a significant selloff, then drifted quietly lower through the session to close a few ticks off the morning print. UMBS 5.0 went from 99.47 at the open to 99.43 at the close — a 4-tick decline that took the 30-year rate up exactly one basis point, from 6.29% to 6.30%. No scheduled economic data today, so the softness was likely light position-squaring rather than any change in outlook. The intermediate Treasury curve led the selling — 2s up 2.6 bps, 5s up 3.1 bps — while the long end held nearly flat.

The bigger picture: the bond market's resilience at the open was the real story. New trade escalation over the weekend would have caused a sharper selloff a few weeks ago. Today it didn't. That tells you something about how much uncertainty is already priced in. The 10-year is right around 4.25%, and MBS pricing is stable enough that rate sheets haven't moved in a material way. For refinance-eligible borrowers, 6.30% is still a meaningful improvement over what most of them locked in 2023–2024.

No major economic releases this week until later — watch for any additional trade policy headlines out of Washington, which remain the primary wildcard for bond direction.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage