Bonds opened weaker, slid further midday, then clawed back to close at 98.92 — UMBS 5.0 still down 10 ticks on the day. The 30-year rate settled at 6.38%, up 6 basis points from yesterday's 6.32%.

The session's shape tells the story. MBS opened down on geopolitical positioning, dipped to an intraday low of 98.87 as spread widening picked up around midday, then recovered back to the morning's opening level into the close. That recovery qualifies as "modest gains after opening weaker" — but it didn't undo the day's damage. The 30-year rate moved 6 basis points higher, which is what borrowers actually see. The 10-year held a tight range, closing at 4.349%, up less than a basis point from the open. The real driver wasn't an intraday event — it was defensive positioning ahead of Wednesday's Q1 GDP print and Friday's PCE release. The bond market doesn't want to be caught leaning the wrong way when the economy's first-quarter scorecard drops at 8:30 AM Wednesday.

For borrowers, 6.38% is the new number. The refi math still works — monthly savings versus a 7.0% locked loan on a $400,000 balance are around $168/month at this rate, with a breakeven near 27 months at $4,500 in closing costs. Still worth doing for anyone past that horizon. The window hasn't closed, but it has narrowed from where we started the week. Wednesday's GDP number is the next fork: a weak print likely brings yields down and rates with them; a surprise to the upside validates the current selloff and pushes rates higher. Either way, borrowers who are sitting on a decision should know this week resolves the question.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage