Rates tighten 5 bps as morning bond rally holds through midday — 30yr now at 6.45%

The morning rally has held. UMBS 5.0 is at 98.59, off the morning peak by 3 ticks but still up 24 ticks from yesterday's close — and lenders have acknowledged it. The 30-year conventional rate has come in 5 basis points from this morning's 6.50% open, landing at 6.45%. The 10-year Treasury is essentially unchanged at 4.394%, confirming that the driver today was technical buying and oil's continued decline, not a new macro catalyst.

The positive reprices telegraphed this morning materialized. For borrowers watching from the sidelines, 6.45% is a more compelling number — monthly savings on a $400K loan versus a 7.0% lock are now roughly $150/month, with a breakeven under 31 months at $4,500 in closing costs. The next decision point is Friday's April jobs report. A soft payrolls number extends this; a strong one takes it back. The afternoon session is unlikely to deliver further movement — the bond market has priced in what it can before Friday's data.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage