UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.65 — down 17 ticks net from yesterday's close — as morning gains built on three sessions of overnight strength gave way to a post-FOMC reversal that held through the close. The 30-year conventional rate finishes the day at 6.44%, unchanged.

The day's arc was clean: a strong overnight setup, an early morning bond bid, and then a sustained retreat after the FOMC statement hit at 2:00 PM ET. UMBS 5.0 peaked at 98.94 on the open and slid 29 ticks to 98.65 through midday, with the 10-year Treasury yield following the inverse path — from 4.336% at the open to 4.391% at the close. The afternoon produced no recovery. The market found a floor but not a bid.

The FOMC held the federal funds rate unchanged, as priced. The statement language acknowledged tariff-driven uncertainty in the economic outlook but framed the risks as balanced — not a signal that cuts are coming sooner. With Core PCE at 3.2% and private payrolls still adding over 100,000 jobs per month, the Fed has no basis for urgency, and the statement reflected that. A genuinely dovish tilt would have needed language treating tariff headwinds as a growth threat requiring a policy response. That's not what markets got, and yields backed up accordingly.

For borrowers, today ends where it started: 6.44% on the 30-year. The three-session rally held the rate flat even as the bond market reversed — lenders absorbed the intraday swings rather than repricing twice. Tomorrow's Jobs Report is the next catalyst. April nonfarm payrolls are the number; a print significantly above consensus would pressure rates higher. A miss or a soft revision to prior months could restart the bond bid. The refi window remains open at 6.44% for borrowers locked at 7.0% or above — the math doesn't change on a flat day.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage