Rates open Wednesday at 6.56% — holding at the highest level since early March after yesterday's late-session selloff. The 10-year Treasury nudged higher overnight to 4.47%, signaling no relief yet as markets await retail sales data later this week.

The overnight session handed bond bulls nothing to work with. UMBS 5.0 opened at 98.13, essentially flat from yesterday's close of 98.14. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.472%, about 2 basis points above where it closed Tuesday. That might look like stability on the surface, but it isn't — it's consolidation at a ceiling. Yesterday's move was driven by geopolitical headlines and weak treasury auction demand; this morning there's no catalyst pulling yields back down, which means sellers remain in control of the tape. The 30yr conventional rate at 6.56% reflects that reality.

Context matters here. The April CPI print of 3.8% annually that hit Tuesday morning was already a headwind before yields took their afternoon run higher. Add in continued treasury supply pressure and risk-off sentiment from geopolitical noise, and you have three legs on a stool that's keeping mortgage rates pinned above 6.50%. This is the highest rate environment since early March, and it's landing squarely on peak spring buying season. The spring market is showing up to find rates nearly a quarter-point higher than where they were 30 days ago.

For borrowers floating right now, there's no obvious reason to wait today. The retail sales report due Thursday is the next meaningful data event — a weak number gives bond bulls something to work with and could pull yields down a few basis points, which would translate into slightly better rate sheets by Thursday afternoon. A strong print won't do that. For buyers who locked last week at 6.42–6.49%, the decision is looking better every day. Those still shopping need to treat any sub-6.50% opportunity as worth capturing — the current trajectory doesn't favor patience.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage