UMBS 5.0 closes at 97.42, essentially flat from Friday, while the 30-year rate ticks up to 6.68% — a noisy session that went nowhere.

The session traced a sharp arc: a 15-basis-point morning gain was entirely erased by midday as the 10-year pushed back above 4.60%, then a late-session recovery brought MBS prices back near Friday's close. The 10-year Treasury settles at 4.589%, essentially unchanged from last week's close near 4.592% — but the round-trip in between was volatile. Conflicting war-related headlines drove early swings with no clean directional signal emerging.

For borrowers, flat MBS still means 6.68% on 30-year quotes — the highest levels in roughly nine months. The macro overhang hasn't shifted: options markets continue pricing a real probability of a July Fed rate hike, last week's $691 billion Treasury supply is still digesting through the system, and the 10-year needs to break decisively back below 4.50% before rate sheets have any reason to improve. Today's session confirmed the current range rather than breaking out of it.