30-year conventional closed at 6.61%, 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.49% — down 7 basis points on the day — and UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.04, up 50 bps from Friday's close.

Today opened with a sharp geopolitical-catalyst move — US-Iran agreement in principle, Strait of Hormuz reopening as a core term — and bonds largely held it. The morning rally peaked near the open at UMBS 97.98, stalled through midday as markets waited for follow-through, then pushed to new session highs of 98.04 into the close. Rate sheets repriced from 6.65% to 6.61% and held there. The pattern is clean: catalyst hit, market tested it, it held. There was no reversal.

The context matters. Coming into the week, the 10-year was stuck around 4.56% with inflation running at 3.8%, a new Fed Chair (Warsh, sworn in Friday) expected to lean hawkish, and a geopolitical risk premium baked into oil and yield levels. Today's move unwound a meaningful slice of that risk premium. We're back to where we were before last week's yield spike — not through resistance, but not retreating either.

For borrowers, Tuesday's pricing carries into Wednesday morning. Rate sheets at 6.61% are the best available since mid-May. The refi window stays on watch — at 6.61% the math is marginal on most loans, but borrowers locked at 7.0%+ who haven't run numbers yet should run them today.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage