MBS 5.0 has drifted 7 ticks lower since the open, now at 97.56. The 10-year Treasury is holding at 4.579% and mortgage rates remain at 6.63% — unchanged from this morning.

The session is quiet relative to the early noise. MBS softened slightly through the morning as the market digested the geopolitical headlines, but the deterioration has been gradual rather than sharp. The 10-year has found a floor at the 4.58% range — it hasn't added to this morning's move. That's the market saying it's already priced the ceasefire news and isn't looking for a new catalyst to sell into. Volume and volatility tend to compress midday on sessions like this, and that's what's playing out. The real test is tomorrow's 8:30 AM ET jobless claims print. If that number reinforces June's labor weakness, you'll see MBS recover; if it comes in hot, expect another leg lower.

Nothing new to act on heading into the afternoon. Thursday morning is the next meaningful event.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage