Bonds Close Higher as Growth Trade Wins Thursday

10yr Treasury: 4.31%(-0.01)By David Burson

30-year fixed closes at 6.41%, down 4 basis points on the day. UMBS 5.0 ends at 98.91, +16 basis points. 10-year Treasury at 4.307%, down 1 basis point.

Thursday's market structure was a textbook two-act session. Liberation Day tariff details landed early and briefly pushed UMBS 5.0 to a morning low of 98.47 — a 28-basis-point drop from Wednesday's close. Then oil prices retreated. When oil pulled back, the inflation logic behind the selloff weakened, and bonds got bought aggressively. UMBS 5.0 recovered the entire loss and added another 16 basis points on top. The MBS market closed at its best level of the day.

For borrowers, 6.41% is 23 basis points below the mid-March high of 6.64%. That gap on a $400,000 loan is roughly $60 per month. The close held the reversal completely — what looked like a bad day at 10 AM finished as a good one. Tomorrow's March jobs report (8:30 AM ET, consensus ~135,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemployment) is the next market-moving event. A soft number accelerates the growth slowdown trade. A strong number puts the inflation case back on the table.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage

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Market commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Rates shown are wholesale par rates and are subject to change. NMLS #1111861.