Rates close the week at 6.45% as solid jobs data undercuts the slowdown trade on a quiet Good Friday.

Bonds opened Friday on the back foot after the March jobs report and barely moved from there. Bond markets closed early for Good Friday, and with volume near zero the morning weakness held through the close. The 10-year yield finished at 4.341%, up 3.4 basis points on the day. UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.66, down 24 basis points from Thursday's close.

The March jobs report was the swing factor. All week, bonds had found support on the growth slowdown trade — the thesis that tariff pressure hits the economy before it stokes inflation, making Treasuries a hedge. A solid employment number chips away at that narrative: a healthy labor market keeps the Fed on hold and removes a key support for bonds. Unlike Thursday, when bonds staged a full intraday reversal on oil-price and growth concerns, Friday produced no recovery. Markets drifted into the early close with the morning's weakness intact.

The 30-year rate closes the week at 6.45%, 4 basis points above yesterday's reading and still about 19 basis points below the mid-March high of 6.64% — but the gap is narrowing. Next week's lighter economic calendar puts tariff and trade headlines back in the driver's seat. Powell and several FOMC members are scheduled to speak; those appearances will be watched for any signal on how the Fed is balancing growth risk against inflation in a tariff environment. Direction remains uncertain. Book what makes sense for the deal.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage