The 30-year fixed has pulled back to 6.65% through midday, dropping 3 basis points from this morning's open as UMBS 5.0 adds another 10 ticks and the 10-year settles at 4.538%.

The driver is straightforward: oil came in slightly lower to start the day, and the bond market followed. Energy prices are the shortest path from geopolitics to inflation expectations to yields — when oil eases, the inflation premium baked into Treasuries eases with it. No major afternoon data events are scheduled, so this tone is likely to hold unless something unexpected surfaces. For borrowers watching from the sidelines, a 3-basis-point move doesn't change the math, but it reinforces that this morning's stabilization wasn't noise.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage