The 30-year fixed sits at 6.64% this morning — essentially unchanged from Thursday's close and flat for the week — while UMBS 5.0 gives back 15 ticks to 97.55 and the 10-year Treasury inches to 4.57%.

The week ended where it started, which sounds uneventful until you look at what held rates pinned here. Wednesday's release of the June FOMC minutes confirmed something the bond market hadn't fully priced: at least one committee member formally argued for raising rates at that meeting — not cutting. Most of 2026 has been framed around when, not whether, the Fed would cut. That framing is eroding. With core inflation still running hot and consumer inflation expectations rising, the internal Fed debate has shifted. Meanwhile, war-related headlines have filled the economic calendar gap this week, and geopolitical uncertainty tends to keep MBS spreads wide — bond buyers demand more yield when the outlook is murky, which puts a floor under mortgage rates regardless of Treasury moves.

The housing data this week tells a more encouraging story for buyers. Pending home sales climbed to a six-week high, a leading signal of real purchase activity. National housing supply hit a ten-year high for single-family homes, giving buyers time and negotiating leverage they haven't had in years. And there's a quieter dynamic building: wages are now outpacing home price growth, which is real affordability improvement happening month over month even as the sticker rate stays elevated. Mortgage applications slipped during the holiday-shortened week — seasonal noise, not a demand signal.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage