UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.20, down 51 ticks from Friday's 98.71 settle — the 30-year rate finished at 6.56%, its highest level in more than a month, after two rounds of lender reprices through the session

Monday ran one direction all day. UMBS 5.0 opened at 98.41, fell to an intraday low of 98.16 by midday, then recovered just enough to close at 98.20 — 51 ticks below Friday's settlement. The 30-year conventional rate moved from 6.44% at the open to 6.56% at the close, with lenders repricing twice through the session and not passing any of the afternoon's minor bounce back to borrowers. The 10-year Treasury settled at 4.438%, up 6.3 basis points on the day.

The driver was the FOMC meeting from last Wednesday, April 29. The Fed held rates steady but produced dissenting votes against signaling any near-term cut — two members pushed back on that language explicitly. The bond market spent the weekend sitting with that detail and arrived Monday with sellers already positioned. Core PCE at 3.2% gives the hawkish camp a data foundation to stand on, and heavy Treasury supply this week kept buyers from stepping in aggressively. The 98.25–98.30 support level flagged at midday broke cleanly and without follow-through buying. The afternoon saw minor activity off the 98.16 low — not a conviction trade, just positioning near the close.

For borrowers, Monday cost 12 basis points. Anyone locked late last week in the mid-6.40s held onto a real advantage. At 6.56%, the refi window stays open for borrowers carrying 7.0%+ loans — monthly savings on a $400K loan run approximately $115/month against a 7.0% note, with a breakeven near 39 months at $4,500 in closing costs — but the cushion has thinned from where it was last week. Key events ahead: no tier-one data Tuesday, ISM Services Wednesday, Jobless Claims Thursday. A reversal needs a catalyst; absent one, bonds will take their lead from whatever tone the data sets midweek.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage