Rates are holding steady at two-week lows as Thursday opens — 30-year rate sheets at 6.59%, UMBS 5.0 down just 2 price points overnight to 98.31, and the 10-year Treasury at 4.455%, up roughly 1 basis point from Wednesday's close.

Yesterday's 29-basis-point UMBS rally closed at 98.33 and the overnight session didn't give it back. That's the headline this morning: consolidation rather than reversal. The PCE inflation report landed yesterday in line with expectations — core at 3.3% annualized for April — and didn't push rates in either direction. Markets took the data in stride, which matters: a hot surprise would have triggered selling pressure overnight, and it didn't happen. Instead UMBS opened essentially flat, holding the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday intact.

The backdrop hasn't changed. Core PCE at 3.3% keeps the Fed on hold — it's nearly double their 2% target and nowhere near a threshold that opens the door to cuts. Geopolitical risk-off flows have been a secondary driver this week, lifting demand for Treasuries and MBS alongside equity volatility. Neither of those inputs is gone. The inflation reading confirms the Fed isn't cutting soon; the geopolitical uncertainty keeps safe-haven demand in the mix. That combination tends to produce rangy, choppy trade rather than a sustained directional move — and that's what we're seeing.

For borrowers, the practical message is simple: 6.59% is real, it's holding, and rate sheets today reflect the level rather than racing ahead of it. Yesterday's MBS gains translated into actual lender pricing, and lenders are unlikely to pull that pricing without a new catalyst. A flat open doesn't give them one. Borrowers who were waiting for rates to settle from last week's volatility have that settlement now. This is a day to run numbers, not wait.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage