30yr closed at 6.66% (+0.08). UMBS 5.0 settled at 97.77, down 48 ticks on the day. 10yr Treasury closed at 4.516%, up 3.9 basis points.

The day opened with a sharp bond selloff following a stronger-than-expected jobs report — UMBS 5.0 dropped to 97.72 at the open (down 53 ticks from Thursday's close) and the 10-year spiked to 4.543%. The data was clear enough: the labor market isn't cooperating with the rate-cut narrative, and bond traders responded accordingly. Rate sheets repriced higher across the board by mid-morning.

From there, the session turned into a slow recovery that never quite finished. UMBS climbed back to 97.81 at midday as the initial shock wore off and some of the overreaction was unwound — but the afternoon failed to build on that. The close at 97.77 leaves bonds down 48 ticks net, slightly worse than midday but slightly better than the morning low. The 10-year drifted from 4.543% to 4.516% over the course of the day, a modest easing that signals the acute selling pressure is over, not that the market changed its mind about the jobs data.

The 30yr rate at 6.66% is the real number borrowers will see on their rate sheets heading into next week. That's up 8 basis points from Thursday and the highest quoted rate since late May. Next week's calendar is lighter — no major employment or inflation prints. Bonds will have room to stabilize if they can hold above the week's lows.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage