Bond markets were closed for Juneteenth. 30-year rate closes at 6.58%, 10-year Treasury at 4.456%, UMBS 5.0 at 98.13 — all unchanged from morning open.

A week that could have been significantly worse ends on solid footing. Monday's starting rate of 6.58% is Friday's closing rate of 6.58% — the Fed hold, the new chair transition, and the post-FOMC noise all washed out by Thursday's sharp bond rally. UMBS 5.0 finished the week up 13 basis points on the session, and the 10-year settled 4 basis points tighter at 4.456%. The short end of the curve carries the uncertainty premium from last week's Fed developments, but the long end — which is what actually sets mortgage rates — found its level and held it.

For borrowers, this was a week to watch but not to panic. Rates touched 6.62% mid-week before snapping back. Those who waited rather than locking Wednesday morning at the peak came out ahead. The week's takeaway: the underlying trajectory for rates hasn't changed. Fed uncertainty adds volatility around the path, not necessarily a new, higher ceiling. The math on a purchase or refi at 6.58% is the same math it was Monday.

Markets reopen Monday. Housing data and additional Fed commentary are on next week's calendar.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage