Bonds are at their lows of the day. UMBS 5.5 is off an eighth at 99.26, the 10-year is at 4.721% after adding about three basis points, and the top-tier 30-year fixed sits at 6.73%, two basis points above Friday.

The morning's Empire Manufacturing beat started the pressure and it never let up. Oil has climbed through the session on Iran escalation, and bond yields have tracked it closely enough that fuel prices are effectively setting the direction — that correlation has been the dominant intraday variable for two weeks now. The practical piece: MBS are an eighth of a point below where they were when some lenders printed rate sheets this morning. That puts negative reprices on the table from the faster-moving lenders. If you are floating, check pricing before the close rather than after.

Context matters more than the move, though. At 6.73% you are still well under the 6.85% high from earlier this month and only four basis points above Thursday's 6.69%, which was the lowest reading since July 17. Last week's soft CPI and PPI did the real work, and one session of oil-driven selling does not undo it.

Wednesday at 2:00 PM Eastern is the week's one first-tier event — the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. That is what traders are positioned for and the most likely thing to reset pricing between now and Friday. Housing Starts and Building Permits land Tuesday at 8:30 Eastern, second-tier unless one of them badly misses. If you are inside 30 days of closing and happy with today's pricing, the risk on this week's calendar is Wednesday afternoon — today's move is an oil story, not a Fed story. Make sense?

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage