The July FOMC Minutes hit at 2:00 PM ET. The initial read: bonds barely moved. The 10-year Treasury is at 4.666%, up about 2 basis points from this morning's 4.648% — a small fade of the morning rally, not a reversal. The day's gain versus yesterday's close near 4.705% is still intact.

That's a muted reaction, which cuts both ways. Markets were positioned for the minutes to clarify the September rate-cut debate. No dramatic repricing means the minutes didn't shock in either direction — the committee's deliberations in July are reading as roughly consistent with what the market had already priced. The bond market's morning catalyst was actually separate: a Treasury buyback announcement moved yields before the minutes even dropped. That bid is mostly holding.

Rate sheets are unlikely to move much before lenders finish reading the full text. Midday reprices, if any, would follow a 30-to-60 minute read-through. Directional picture since morning: slightly weaker on the 10-year, constructive on the day as a whole.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage