Bonds open Monday modestly firmer — the 10-year Treasury eases from Friday's 4.738% close to 4.718%, and MBS prices hold near Friday's levels as markets settle in ahead of Wednesday's PCE report.

The 30-year fixed holds at 6.77%, essentially unchanged from Friday's close. Last week told a clear story: a midweek bond rally driven by Treasury buybacks got reversed almost entirely when oil prices climbed and dragged yields higher Thursday into Friday. By Friday's close, the 10-year had pressed back through 4.71% — a technical level bond watchers had circled heading into the week. Monday's pullback is small, under two basis points, and the 10-year is still sitting above that 4.71 ceiling — this is the market exhaling after the week's final push, not a declared reversal. The fundamental picture hasn't changed: rates are range-bound in the upper 6s, and the next catalyst that could actually shift the range sits on Wednesday.

PCE inflation posts Wednesday, August 26 — the Fed's preferred gauge of whether price growth is actually cooling. That single number carries more weight right now than a week of routine trading volume. A cooler-than-expected reading would give the Fed room to hold its rate-cut posture and push bond yields lower; a hotter reading brings September's FOMC meeting into sharper focus and puts pressure back on the bond market. Borrowers with floating lock decisions have good reason to wait through Wednesday before committing — at 6.77%, you're not leaving material savings on the table by pausing a few days for better information.

After PCE, the calendar thins before the September 4 jobs report, CPI on September 11, and the September 16 FOMC meeting. That September sequence is where rate direction for Q4 gets cleaner. For now, Monday is a quiet start to a week defined by one number.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage