The reprices are in — the 30-year mortgage rate has moved to 7.07%, and 10-year yields are holding near their morning highs with no meaningful recovery.

Since this morning, the 10-year Treasury has eased barely one basis point, from 4.923% to 4.914%. That's not a reversal — it's noise. Yields remain roughly 7.5 basis points above Wednesday's close, and lenders have now absorbed the PPI print: the 30-year rate is at 7.07%, the high for this cycle. The repricing that was pending as of this morning's note has happened.

The drivers are unchanged. PPI above expectations and oil above $100 gave the bond market no reason to recover, and it hasn't found one. Tomorrow's CPI print at 8:30 AM ET is the only catalyst on the calendar that could reverse this week's move before September 16. A soft reading gives the bond market permission to retrace; a hot reading shifts the FOMC conversation from "hold indefinitely" to something harder. At 7.07%, the rate math has tightened further for every borrower watching. The downside on a hot CPI print is larger than the upside on a soft one at this yield level.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage