Friday closed exactly where midday left off: 30-year conventional at 6.58%, 10-year Treasury at 4.485%, UMBS 5.0 at 98.10. The day finished bullish — bonds opened 16 basis points below Thursday's close and clawed back most of that by the afternoon session.

The session was quiet in the best possible way. Morning weakness absorbed Thursday's ceasefire-driven overshoot, then stabilized without further selling. No major data, no Fed speakers, no geopolitical updates to trade against. The 10-year held below 4.50% all day — the ceiling that had contained yields all week. UMBS recovered from 97.94 at the open to 98.10 by the close, a 16-basis-point recovery that kept rates flat versus yesterday's late levels.

For the week as a whole, the story is rates at 6.58% despite a firm jobs report and a 4.2% CPI print — both of which, under normal conditions, would have pushed yields higher. Thursday's geopolitical catalyst overrode the data. That's a fragile basis for rate improvement, which is exactly why this weekend matters. FOMC on Tuesday–Wednesday is the next event risk; no rate change expected, but the statement tone will determine whether this level holds into next week.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage