30yr conventional closed at 6.52%, down 1 basis point from this morning's open. The 10-year Treasury finished at 4.375% and UMBS 5.0 closed at 98.63 — essentially flat on the day.

Q2's final session did exactly what a quiet quarter-end is supposed to do: nothing. Rates opened at 6.53%, nudged one basis point tighter by midday, and held there through the close. UMBS 5.0 drifted 2 ticks lower from the morning open, well within noise range. Last week's improvement — the 30-year dropping from roughly 6.65% to 6.52% — is preserved heading into Q3.

The story now shifts to volatility. Quarter-end rebalancing is off the table. July opens with the June jobs report landing Friday on a shortened holiday session — thin volume, wider spreads, and outsized price reactions to data. A soft print could extend this rally toward 6.25% or lower. A stronger-than-expected number risks giving back some of last week's gains quickly. Borrowers who've been watching the 7% wall from 2023-2024 have a real window right now; that window's duration is tied directly to Friday's data.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage