Bonds sold off steadily through the session, closing the 10-year Treasury at 4.465% (+9 bps from the morning open) and UMBS 5.0 at 98.11 (-35 ticks). The 30-year conventional rate closes at 6.54%.

Q3 opened with consistent selling pressure from start to finish. The 10-year Treasury drifted from 4.401% at the morning open to 4.465% by the close — that's 6 basis points of slow bleed that pushed UMBS 5.0 from 98.46 at midday down to 98.11 by the end of the session. No single headline drove it. This was the market repricing after the mechanical support of quarter-end rebalancing expired. Institutional buyers who were adding fixed income ahead of Q2 close last week aren't there anymore. What's left is a market in a holding pattern, waiting on data.

ADP private payrolls land Wednesday and the June jobs report prints Thursday on a shortened pre-holiday session. Both of those carry real weight. Core PCE running at 3.4% gave the Fed no reason to ease last week, and bond buyers aren't going to commit ahead of two prints that could flip the narrative in either direction. Sellers had the floor today because buyers stepped back.

For borrowers, the 30-year rate at 6.54% is essentially where it started the morning and where the day ends. Thursday's jobs report is the next signal — a weak print could pull rates back toward 6.25–6.30% and give borrowers on the fence a genuine entry point. A stronger number adds yield pressure and reverses some of last week's gains. That report lands on thin holiday volume, which tends to amplify moves in either direction. If you're watching for timing, Thursday morning is the moment.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage