Bond markets closed early at 2 PM Eastern — the holiday session is done. The 30-year conventional rate held at 6.60% through the close, UMBS 5.0 finishes at 98.09, and the 10-year Treasury held at 4.486%. Rates went out exactly where they came in this morning.

Yesterday's jobs number moved the market. Today's job was just to hold the gains — and it did. With no new data to trade and thin holiday volume, there was nothing pushing bonds in either direction. The early close at 2 PM locked in today's pricing before any afternoon drift could develop. Lenders who set locks this morning are holding those levels through the long weekend. The window today was the morning; it's now behind us.

Rates next move when data gives them reason. CPI lands mid-July. Until then, 6.60% is the number heading into next week — down five basis points from where the week started, still well above the range that makes refinancing automatic, but the best reading in several weeks.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage