The morning's ceiling hasn't held — the 10-year yield hit 4.615% by midday and UMBS 5.0 dropped another 20 cents since the open, pushing 30-year rates to 6.72%.

Bonds have found no footing through the morning session. The 10-year is now up nearly 6 basis points from Friday's close and MBS prices are off 35 cents on the day — a continuation of the weekend weakness rather than a stabilization around resistance. The technical ceiling the morning described isn't being tested from below anymore; the market is trading through it in the wrong direction. Monday afternoon becomes a question of whether yields can reverse a move that's accelerating, not one that's stalling.

For anyone watching rates in real time, this is a day where the quoted rate is trailing the market. Lenders pricing off this morning's snapshot haven't caught up to the full midday move. Actual pricing will reflect more of this damage as the afternoon continues.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage