The 30-year mortgage rate closed at 6.76%, down 4 basis points on the day, capping a quiet session that added to the two-day recovery from last week's spike. UMBS 5.0 finished up about 9 ticks at 97.06 and the 10-year Treasury eased to 4.61%, roughly 4 basis points lower than Monday's close.

There was no data to trade on today, and it showed. Bonds ground modestly higher in a low-volume session, with the whole market holding position ahead of the two events that actually matter this week. Yields drifted down from the morning open, bottomed near midday around 4.59% on the 10-year, then leaked slightly higher into the close — the kind of small, directionless chop that happens when traders have already made their pre-event bets and are unwilling to add risk. The net for the day was still green, the third consecutive session of easing, but nobody is committing hard until they hear from Chair Warsh.

For borrowers, today's close is the best 30-year reading in over a week — about 14 basis points below last week's high near 6.90%, or roughly $53 a month less on a $400,000 loan. But the number that sets August is coming Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC statement drops at 2 PM ET, and June PCE follows Friday at 8:30 AM ET. Anyone who stepped back last week should be reachable through Wednesday — bond markets move fast the moment that statement crosses, and today's calm is the pause before the catalyst, not the resolution.

FOMC policy statement: Wednesday, July 30, 2 PM ET. June PCE inflation report: Friday, July 31, 8:30 AM ET.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage