The 30-year mortgage rate closed at 6.78%, up 2 basis points on the day, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 7 basis points to 4.68% and mortgage bonds gave back roughly 5 ticks. The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady, and rates ticked higher anyway.

The session opened at 6.76%, drifted to 6.78% by midday, and held there into the close — a small move in the quoted rate that masks a firmer selloff underneath. The 10-year did the heavy lifting, climbing from 4.62% at the open to 4.68% by the close, its widest one-day gain of the week. UMBS 5.0 finished near 97.00, down about 5 ticks from the morning's 97.16, so bonds tracked the Treasury weakness rather than fighting it. The Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged was the market's base case, so the standing-pat announcement itself carried no surprise — the upward drift came from the surrounding language and positioning, not the headline rate. When a market sells modestly on a "no change" outcome it was already braced for, the signal is that traders read the details as less dovely than they'd hoped.

For borrowers, 6.78% on a $400,000 loan runs about $2,602 a month in principal and interest — a handful of dollars above yesterday and functionally the same rate we've held all week. The bigger takeaway is that the event everyone was waiting on has passed without cracking rates lower, and the next catalyst is Friday's June PCE inflation report at 8:30 AM ET — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the number most likely to move rates in either direction before the week is out. Borrowers sitting on 7%-plus locks from 2023–2024 still have a real case to run the math, but the compelling break below 6.50% didn't arrive today. Stay close to your loan officer through Friday.

Verified upcoming: June PCE inflation report — Friday, July 31, 8:30 AM ET.