Rates closed the day slightly higher at 6.77%, giving back a sliver of this week's gains as bonds softened into Friday's jobs report — oil and corporate issuance did the damage, not any change in the underlying story.

The session opened at 6.75% — the multi-week low — and drifted steadily higher from there, closing the 30-year conventional at 6.77%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed all day, finishing around 4.677%, roughly 6 basis points above Wednesday's close. UMBS 5.0 gave back about a quarter-point, closing near 97.00 (down ~9 ticks). No single event drove it; the pressure came from firmer oil prices adding a touch of inflation friction and from companies rushing corporate bond deals out the door before the long weekend and the post-payrolls repricing. That supply soaked up demand that would otherwise support Treasuries and MBS.

None of it changes the setup for tomorrow. This week's improvement was built on soft ADP payrolls (44,000 private jobs) and easing geopolitical risk, and the market spent today unwilling to press those bets further — a classic pre-data drift, not a reversal. Everything hinges on the 8:30 AM ET Non-Farm Payrolls print. A number that confirms the weak ADP signal likely extends the rally toward the mid-6.60s; a strong beat takes back a chunk of this week's gains within hours. For borrowers close to locking, today shortened the runway without changing the math: locking removes tomorrow's binary risk, floating bets the official count comes in soft. Both are live until the number hits.

— David Burson, NetRate Mortgage