Bonds end lower as Warsh signals caution; ADP miss limits damage

Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in a week as quarter-end selling pressure carried over into Wednesday. The 10-year Treasury ended at 4.48% and UMBS 5.0 settled at 98.05 (-0.07). ADP private payrolls came in at 98,000 — missing the 113,000 forecast and the softest reading in months — which helped prevent deeper selling. Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the ECB SINTRA forum and struck a cautiously dovish tone, noting inflation risks have come down while stopping short of any rate-cut signal. Average 30-year fixed rates are up roughly 0.10-0.11% from Monday morning. Thursday BLS jobs report is the next major test.